Insights & Strategy

Holiday Traffic Is Mostly Mobile This Year. Is Your Checkout Ready?

Ascent24 Technologies
6 min read
Illustration of a phone with a shopping cart, a gift box, a parcel and a discount tag, with the Ascent24 logo

Adobe expects shoppers to spend USD 275.1 billion online in the US between 1 November and 31 December 2026, and 57.4% of that on phones. On Thanksgiving the mobile share is forecast to hit 63%. If your store is going to have a problem this season, it will most likely show up on a phone, in the checkout, on the busiest day. Thanksgiving is 26 November and Cyber Monday is 30 November, so there are about three weeks left to test, trim and lock things down. Here is a practical list for that time.

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What the 2026 forecast says

Adobe's forecast, published on 28 September 2026 and based on Adobe Analytics data from US retail sites, expects:

  • Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) to bring in USD 47.5 billion, 17.3% of the season.
  • Cyber Monday to be the biggest day at USD 15.1 billion, with Black Friday second at USD 12.9 billion.
  • Buy now, pay later (BNPL) to drive USD 21.3 billion in November and December, with about 82% of BNPL spend coming from mobile.
  • Traffic to US retail sites from AI chat and browser tools, counted by clicks on links, to rise 130% year on year.

These are forecasts, not results. They still point the same way: more of your revenue will pass through a small screen and a short window, and a slow or broken step costs more than it did last year.

1. Test the real checkout on a mid-range phone

Developers and managers usually test on new, fast phones over office Wi-Fi. Many of your customers are on a three-year-old Android phone on mobile data. Buy or borrow one and place real orders, from product page to confirmation, as a guest and as a returning customer.

Check the things that quietly kill orders:

  • Address and card fields that open the wrong keyboard or fight autofill.
  • Pop-ups, chat widgets or cookie bars that cover the pay button.
  • Discount code boxes that reload the page or clear the cart.
  • Error messages that appear off screen, so the shopper never sees them.

Write down every step that takes more than a few seconds. That list is your fix list.

2. Cut third-party scripts

Every review widget, tracking pixel, heatmap tool and chat bubble adds weight, and some of them load on the checkout too. Open your tag manager and app list and ask of each one: does it need to run on product, cart and checkout pages this month? Remove what you no longer use and delay what is not needed for the purchase. Keep your analytics and payment scripts, and test again after each removal so you know what changed.

3. Check payment and BNPL options on mobile

With so much BNPL spend expected on phones, make sure the options you offer actually work there. Place a test order with each wallet and BNPL provider you show (for example Apple Pay, Google Pay, Shop Pay, Klarna or Affirm, depending on your platform). Confirm the order lands in your admin, your stock updates, and the confirmation email goes out. If a provider's button loads slowly or fails, it is better to hide it for the season than to leave a broken option on the page.

4. Load-test the pages your promotions point to

Your ads, emails and social posts will send people to a few landing and collection pages at the same moment. Run a load test on those pages and on add to cart and checkout, ideally at a few times your busiest hour from last year. Look for slow database queries, search that times out, and image files that were never resized. If you are on a hosted platform like Shopify, most of the server side is handled for you, so focus on apps, themes and any custom integrations.

5. Set a change freeze

Agree a date, for example 20 November, after which nothing goes live except urgent fixes. No new apps, theme edits or pricing logic changes during Cyber Week. Write down who can approve an emergency change and how to roll it back. Many peak-season outages start as a small edit made on a busy Friday.

6. Watch errors and orders live

During Cyber Week, have someone watch the numbers that show trouble early: checkout errors, payment failures, orders per hour compared with the same hour last week, and site speed. Set simple alerts so a drop in orders or a jump in payment errors reaches a person's phone within minutes. Also keep a short list of who to call at your payment provider, host and developer.

Common mistakes

  • Testing only on desktop, then hearing about mobile problems from customers.
  • Installing a new app in late November to add one more promotion.
  • Leaving a BNPL or wallet button in place after it fails a test order.
  • Having nobody responsible for watching the site on Thanksgiving.

If AI shopping tools are part of your plan, our checklist on getting a Shopify store ready for AI shopping agents covers product data and policies. For stock accuracy before peak, see how to improve inventory accuracy.

Where Ascent24 can help

Ascent24 builds and supports online stores, ecommerce apps and custom integrations. If you want a second pair of hands to audit your checkout speed, scripts and payment setup before the freeze, email info@ascent24.io or send us your details.

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FAQs

How much of holiday shopping happens on phones?

Adobe forecasts that 57.4% of US online holiday spend in November and December 2026 will be on mobile devices, rising to 63% on Thanksgiving.

When should an online store stop making changes before Cyber Week?

Pick a date about a week before Thanksgiving, such as 20 November in 2026, and allow only urgent fixes after it.

Do I need to load-test a Shopify store?

Shopify handles the hosting, but your theme, apps and any custom integrations can still slow down under load, so test the pages your promotions point to.

Should I offer buy now, pay later at checkout?

If your customers use it, yes, but test each provider on a phone first. Adobe expects USD 21.3 billion of BNPL spend this season, most of it on mobile.

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